The 0.6% achieve in medical care companies costs may have mirrored Omicron disruption, and prescription drug costs additionally noticed an unusually massive achieve. However the acceleration in lease of shelter inflation reveals no signal of abating, with homeowners’ equal lease up by 0.4% m/m once more and lease of main residence seeing a fair greater 0.5% achieve.
Alongside the 0.7% soar in meals away from residence costs, this underlines our view {that a} fast cyclical acceleration in inflation is underway and, with labour market situations exceptionally tight, it’s unlikely to abate any time quickly.
Whereas we nonetheless anticipate extra beneficial base results and a partial easing of provide shortages to push core inflation decrease this yr, this implies it is going to stay nicely above the Fed’s goal for a while.
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